An alternative approach to speculative bubbles modeling: Implications on financial stability

PN-III-P1-1.1-TE-2021-1339

About

The current research project aims to analyze the mechanisms of bubble formation, their measurement methodologies, and their impact on macroeconomic and financial stability.

We aim to extend the current research frontier with respect to bubble detection given the lack of consensus concerning their measurement.

Unlike previous literature that employs signal-based approaches, our methodology is built on a fundamentals-based approach in which bubbles are measured as the difference between market prices and discounted future cash flows.

Our perspective is not isolated to the stock market (as a major fraction of the existing literature) but considers a wide range of assets.

AIMS

 
  • We aim to extend the literature on bubble reaction to monetary policy shocks which allows the analysis of leaning-against-the-wind policies that are continuously under debate.
  • We also aim to study potential bubble comovements, issue vaguely considered up to present in spite of the fact that such interactions had been essential during the last financial crisis.
  • Moreover, we plan to use machine learning algorithms to investigate a series of phenomena that appear in bubbly periods in order to test market efficiency anomalies and to produce a fragility index for the impact of speculative bubbles on financial stability.